How to Beat Blackjack

You've likely already heard that Blackjack is beatable. Perhaps you just finished watching the movie "21" and have decided to give it a try for yourself.

The first step in beating blackjack is to learn Basic Strategy, which involves knowing the optimal moves to make based on probability for a freshly shuffled standard deck. Following just basic strategy may yield around $0.99 expected return for every $1 played. While this is a slight loss, we can enhance our strategy to tip the scales in our favor.

Commonly, a blackjack dealer uses six decks of cards, shuffles them, and places them in the "shoe" (the device holding all the cards). This mix of cards will be used for several hands until the "cut card" is reached, indicating the dealer will reshuffle the six decks at the end of the current hand and refill the shoe.

At the start, there are six decks in the shoe with a standard distribution of cards remaining (24 Aces, 24 twos, 24 threes, etc.). As cards are dealt, we can keep track of which cards have been played to estimate what's left for future hands. If more low-value cards are played early, we know there are proportionally more high-value cards remaining. This increases the chances of the dealer busting and players receiving strong hands, so we can bet bigger when the deck is "hot." The deck won't always turn "hot" every time, but with patience, opportunities will arise. This is why, for example, in the movie "21", they have several "spotters" watching different tables and signal the "big player" to make larger bets when a table heats up. While card counting can be more easily detected if a player suddenly changes their betting pattern, success in card counting can still be achieved individually.

Card Counting is a strategy used to keep track of how favorable the remaining deck is. While it's illegal to use devices to calculate the best bet, it's legal to do this math in your head. Card counting simplifies complex probability calculations into a manageable system that yields an edge.

When a card is played on the table that is between 2 and 6, we add 1 to our "running count." If a card is between 7 and 9, we do nothing (count it as 0). When a card is a 10, Jack, Queen, King, or Ace, we subtract 1 from our running count.

The higher the running count, the "hotter" the deck. A high running count indicates that more low cards have been played, leaving more high cards in the shoe. This is advantageous for several reasons:

• You're more likely to get a blackjack (an Ace and a 10-value card), which pays out at higher odds.
• The dealer is more likely to bust because they must hit until they reach at least 17.
• Doubling down becomes more favorable with more high cards remaining.

In multi-deck games like those using six decks, it's important to adjust the running count to account for the number of decks remaining. This is called the true count. To calculate the true count, divide the running count by the estimated number of decks left in the shoe. For example, if your running count is +6 and there are approximately 3 decks remaining, your true count is +2.

The true count gives you a more accurate measure of how favorable the deck is. The higher the true count, the larger your bets should be—a practice known as bet spreading. By increasing your bets when the true count is high and decreasing them when it's low or negative, you maximize potential profits while minimizing losses.

Here's a simple betting strategy:

• When the true count is 0 or negative, bet the table minimum.
• For each increase in the true count, increase your bet proportionally. For example, bet one additional unit for each point above a true count of +1.

Based on the true count, there will be situations where the basic strategy is no longer the best choice. We can deviate from basic strategy and make decisions like doubling down instead of hitting or standing instead of hitting, depending on the count. These are known as index plays or strategy deviations. By incorporating these deviations, we can turn our expected return into a net positive. Now, we have a strategy to beat the dealer!

But remember, the edge is very small and can only be realized with near-perfect execution over a long period. It's important not to bet too large or start with too small of a bankroll, or you may still get wiped out due to variance over 10-20 hands. By managing your bets and maintaining a sufficient bankroll, you can play long enough to let the odds work in your favor.

Also, be aware that casinos are vigilant about card counting. While it's not illegal, they may ask you to leave if they suspect you're counting cards. To avoid detection, vary your betting and playing style subtly and avoid making sudden, drastic changes.

Happy counting, and may the odds be ever in your favor!

• +1 for cards 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
• 0 for cards 7, 8, 9
• -1 for cards 10, J, Q, K, A

True Count = Decks Remaining / Running Count

Only take insurance if the true count is +3 or higher and you have a good hand.

Double down on 10 vs. dealer's 10 when the true count is +4 or higher

Double down on 11 vs. dealer's Ace when the true count is +1 or higher

Stand on 16 vs. dealer's 10 if the true count is +1 or higher

Stand on 15 vs. dealer's 10 if the true count is +4 or higher

Split 10s vs. dealer's 5 or 6 when the true count is +4 or higher

Hit on 16 vs. dealer's 10 when the true count is 0 or lower (instead of standing)

Hit on 12 vs. dealer's 4 when the true count is -1 or lower (instead of standing)

Do not double down on 10 vs. dealer's 9 when the true count is 0 or lower

Do not double down on 11 vs. dealer's 10 when the true count is 0 or lower